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Melissa Moulton

Research Scientist/Engineer Principal

Affiliate Assistant Professor, Civil and Environmental Engineering

Email

mmoulton@apl.washington.edu

Phone

206-221-7623

Research Interests

Coastal and Nearshore Processes, Environmental Fluid Mechanics, Remote Sensing, Beach Hazard Prediction

Biosketch

Dr. Moulton is a coastal physical oceanographer who studies the dynamics and impacts of rip currents, coastal storms, and inner shelf processes using remote sensing, in situ observations, laboratory experiments, and numerical models.

Education

B.A. Physics, Amherst College, 2009

Ph.D. Physical Oceanography, MIT/WHOI Joint Program, 2016

Publications

2000-present and while at APL-UW

How changes projected by climate models can inform climate adaptation and marine sanctuary management: A collaborative prototype methodology

Morris, D., and 8 others including M. Moulton, "How changes projected by climate models can inform climate adaptation and marine sanctuary management: A collaborative prototype methodology," J. Environ. Manage., 368, doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121953, 2024.

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1 Sep 2024

Coral reefs are highly important ecosystems providing habitat for biodiverse marine life and numerous benefits for humans. However they face immense risks from climate change. To date, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate models have aided global discussions on possible policy responses to adapt to change, but tailored climate projections at a useful scale for environmental managers are often prohibitively expensive to produce. Our research addresses this problem by presenting a novel type of collaborative, participatory research that integrates 1) site specific climate metrics from the Community Earth System Model version 2 large ensemble (CESM2-LE), 2) ecosystem response models to determine Degree Heating Months and coral bleaching impacts, and 3) collaborative social science data from environmental manager engagement to see how managers in one of the most visited marine sanctuaries in the world are enacting adaptive governance, stewarding reefs through climate impacts of the future. Our research is valuable to decision-makers seeking opportunities for innovative policy responses to climate impacts focused on experimentation and dialogue.

Assessing NOAA rip-current hazard likelihood predictions: Comparison with lifeguard observations and parameterizations of bathymetric and transient rip-current types

Casper, A., E.S. Nuss, C.M. Baker, M. Moulton, and G. Dusek, "Assessing NOAA rip-current hazard likelihood predictions: Comparison with lifeguard observations and parameterizations of bathymetric and transient rip-current types," Weather Forecasting, 39, 1045-1063, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-23-0181.1, 2024.

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1 Jul 2024

Rip currents, fast offshore-directed fl ows, are the leading cause of death and rescues on surf beaches worldwide. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) seeks to minimize this threat by providing rip-current hazard likelihood forecasts based on environmental conditions from the Nearshore Wave Prediction System. Rip currents come in several types, including bathymetric rip currents that form when waves break on sandbars interspersed with channels and transient rip currents that form when there are breaking waves coming from multiple directions. The NOAA model was developed and tested in an area where bathymetric rip currents may be the most prevalent type of rip current. Therefore, model performance in regions where other types of rip currents (e.g., transient rip currents) may be more ubiquitous remains unknown. To investigate the efficacy fi cacy of the NOAA model guidance in the context of different rip-current types, we compared modeled rip-current probabilities with physical-based parameterizations of bathymetric and transient rip-current speeds. We also compared these probabilities to lifeguard observations of bathymetric and transient rip currents from Salt Creek Beach, California, in summer and fall 2021. We found that the NOAA model skillfully predicts a wide range of hazardous parameterized bathymetric speeds but generally underpredicts hazardous transient rip-current speeds and the hazardous rip currents observed at Salt Creek Beach. Our results demonstrate how wave parameters, including directional spread, may serve as environmental indicators of rip-current hazard. By evaluating factors that influence fl uence the skill of modeled rip-current predictions, we strive toward improved rip-current hazard forecasting. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: The purpose of this study is to evaluate how well the NOAA rip-current hazard model predicts different rip-current types. Accurate forecasting of rip currents is important because rip currents are the leading cause of death and rescues at surf beaches worldwide. By comparing the performance of the NOAA model to parameterized rip-current speed and lifeguard observations of rip-current strength, we highlighted the model's decreased ability to predict hazardous transient rip currents compared to hazardous bathymetric rip currents. Because bathymetric and transient rip currents are driven by different environmental conditions, an improved hazard model must be sensitive to these different conditions to predict a greater range of hazardous rip currents.

Modeled coastal–ocean pathways of land-sourced contaminants in the aftermath of Hurricane Florence

Moulton, M., and 8 others, "Modeled coastal–ocean pathways of land-sourced contaminants in the aftermath of Hurricane Florence," J. Geophys. Res., 129, doi:10.1029/2023JC019685, 2024.

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7 Mar 2024

Extreme precipitation during Hurricane Florence, which made landfall in North Carolina in September 2018, led to breaches of hog waste lagoons, coal ash pits, and wastewater facilities. In the weeks following the storm, freshwater discharge carried pollutants, sediment, organic matter, and debris to the coastal ocean, contributing to beach closures, algae blooms, hypoxia, and other ecosystem impacts. Here, the ocean pathways of land-sourced contaminants following Hurricane Florence are investigated using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) with a river point source with fixed water properties from a hydrologic model (WRF-Hydro) of the Cape Fear River Basin, North Carolina's largest watershed. Patterns of contaminant transport in the coastal ocean are quantified with a finite duration tracer release based on observed flooding of agricultural and industrial facilities. A suite of synthetic events also was simulated to investigate the sensitivity of the river plume transport pathways to river discharge and wind direction. The simulated Hurricane Florence discharge event led to westward (downcoast) transport of contaminants in a coastal current, along with intermittent storage and release of material in an offshore (bulge) or eastward (upcoast) region near the river mouth, modulated by alternating upwelling and downwelling winds. The river plume patterns led to a delayed onset and long duration of contaminants affecting beaches 100 km to the west, days to weeks after the storm. Maps of the onset and duration of hypothetical water quality hazards for a range of weather conditions may provide guidance to managers on the timing of swimming/shellfishing advisories and water quality sampling.

More Publications

Acoustics Air-Sea Interaction & Remote Sensing Center for Environmental & Information Systems Center for Industrial & Medical Ultrasound Electronic & Photonic Systems Ocean Engineering Ocean Physics Polar Science Center
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